From 200 million watt-hours to 8 billion watt-hours, in just one and a half years, China's requirements for the annual production capacity of lithium-ion battery cells for vehicles have changed.
On the afternoon of November 22, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the “Regulations for Automotive Power Battery Industry (2017)†(Draft for Comment) (hereinafter referred to as “Draft for Commentâ€). File clear: when single enterprise lithium-ion battery production capacity not less than 80 billion watts, nickel-metal hydride battery single enterprise production capacity of not less than 100 million watts, annual production capacity supercapacitor single enterprise The system enterprise's annual production capacity is not less than 80,000 sets or 4 billion watt-hours.
This is a revision of the "Regulations on the Standards of Automotive Power Battery Industry" (hereinafter referred to as "Regulations") issued in March 2015. Although the capacity requirement is only a part of it, the change from 200 kWh to 8 GWh has caused the industry to be in turmoil.
â– The original intention behind the 8 billion watts
In the past one or two years, with the strong support of the state financial subsidy policy, new energy vehicles have experienced explosive growth, and at the same time led to the rapid development of the power battery industry. Many domestic enterprises are accelerating the expansion of production. During this period, some low-quality batteries began to flood into the market, and the low-price competition situation was bleak. In the case of the chaos of the power battery market, many industry experts began to worry that the vicious competition of "bad money to drive out good money" may appear.
The reporter noted that the "Draft for Comment" has carried out a series of adjustments and improvements on battery manufacturers' production capacity, safety requirements, research and development capabilities, recycling and other aspects, especially for the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells. The substantial increase is 40 times that of the 2015 Standard Conditions.
In this regard, Liang Bin (a pseudonym), a person in charge of a large-scale battery company in Tianjin, said: "The "Draft for Comment" is mainly for the current status of the domestic power battery industry. The current situation of battery companies is not normal, including many annual production capacity of only 1 2 G-watt-hour manufacturers, but capital continues to enter this field, it can be seen that they are not rational." Recently, Xu Yanhua, deputy secretary general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, also said in an interview with the media that the power battery needs Larger-scale production can better ensure quality, reduce costs, and improve safety. The guiding ideology of the "Draft for Comment" is to encourage large-scale production of power battery companies. The threshold of 8 billion watt-hours is of great significance to the integration industry.
Liu Yanlong, secretary general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, told the reporter: "The original intention of the "Draft for Comment" is to prevent capital from entering the battery industry by increasing the production threshold. The survival of the fittest from the perspective of production capacity may be easier for the regulatory authorities to operate. Supervision."
â– Capacity first or technology, safety first?
How high is the annual production capacity of 8 billion watt-hours? According to relevant statistics on the production capacity of domestic automotive power battery companies, the companies that can reach the standards by the end of 2016 will only have two BYD and Ningde eras. In this regard, Yang Qi, marketing director of Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., said that he would not express his opinion, but he told reporters: "Although the industry believes that only two battery companies can meet the requirements, as far as I know, there should be at least four." A person in charge of Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd. also revealed to reporters that according to the company's investment plan, the production capacity will exceed 8 billion watt-hours next year.
If a certain scale of production capacity is a prerequisite for reducing costs and ensuring quality, then does high production capacity mean high technology? With the introduction of the "Draft for Comment", industry people have raised objections. Zhao Jianhe, deputy general manager of Beijing Jingyi Jingye Electrical Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters: "There is no inevitable logical relationship between the two. The "Draft for Comment" is interpreted as cooperating with the relevant requirements of the "National Manufacturing 2025" national strategic deployment. Formulating, but not only taking into account the interests of a very small number of companies, but ignoring most other companies, otherwise it will lose market fairness. It is not conducive to the overall development of the battery industry, not considering the overall situation, and is not conducive to the overall development of the battery industry. Battery quality and technological innovation are not very demanding."
The reporter learned that due to the large number of domestic battery products in the process of safety performance testing, it is impossible to pass the needle-punching test, and the relevant requirements of this link have been cancelled. Zhang Wei, chairman of Hebei Shenzhou Judian New Energy Technology Development Co., Ltd., said: "When formulating relevant standards for the battery industry, we should first consider the product quality and the technical level of the enterprise. I believe that acupuncture and extrusion are indispensable. Key indicators. However, the technical standards for power batteries are being lowered, and safety indicators are placed in a secondary position.†Zhao Jianhe also said: “Policies should be based on the consumer’s perspective and introduce the most stringent vehicle batteries. Safety standards, to be safe first."
In addition, Zhang Wei also said: "Some small battery companies have their own technology and characteristics, although they have relatively low production capacity. Now, various new processes and new materials are under development, such as silicon carbon battery, graphene battery, solid state. Batteries. The capacity of these new types of batteries will not be very high. If the policy seals the space for new technology research and development, the innovation of the battery industry will not be discussed."
â– Scale benefits or overcapacity?
Liang Bin told reporters that the "Regulations" and its revised version are not a hard threshold. Even if they fail to meet the requirements, they will not prevent enterprises from continuing to produce. However, industry insiders have speculated that the production capacity index is likely to be linked to the new energy vehicle subsidy policy. Since the publication of the “Regulations†in 2015, as of July 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a total of 57 batches of battery companies that meet the requirements of the regulatory requirements. Earlier, it was reported that only new energy vehicle manufacturers that have entered the catalogue with battery manufacturers are likely to receive subsidies. In view of this, major battery companies have paid special attention to the revision of the "Regulations". There are even opinions that in order to meet the new requirements, the first four batches of 57 battery companies will need to declare and accept the review again.
Liu Yanlong believes: "As the upstream and downstream industries of new energy vehicles are gradually maturing, suddenly increasing the threshold significantly may result in greater waste. For example, the demand for power batteries this year is between 20 and 22 GWh. If there are ten companies that meet the standards, their total capacity of 800G watt-hours will only make the power battery extremely surplus. At that time, enterprises will face the risk of overcapacity." He suggested that the scale of production capacity should be gradually improved, for example, it can be increased to 10 ~20 billion watt hours, no need to suddenly increase 40 times.
In addition, Liang Bin also stressed: "If the relevant policies can be implemented from the overall situation of the industry and implemented in stages, it may be better to give the relevant enterprises a buffer period."
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