After China's accession to the WTO, it has gone through a stable period of five years. The automotive industry, which is closely related to people, has also experienced rapid development for five years. In the past five years, a wide variety of automobiles have entered China. The fierce competition of joint ventures has brought more and more benefits to consumers. China’s autonomous auto companies are also developing and growing. More and more Chinese private car dreams have become reality.
Accompanied by the convergence of the Chinese auto industry and the world auto industry, the news events of the auto industry have recorded the extraordinary path we have taken. Once again, the top ten news selections of Sina Motors have also been carried out for the fifth year, revisiting the trajectory of these news events, and we can gain from them and get inspired.
At 15:00 on December 21, 2006 (Thursday), Sina Automotive invited senior reporters from the automotive industry to visit Sina. They were: Auto China, a major reporter of the China Youth Daily, and Li Anding, a senior reporter of the Xinhua News Agency. Carry on the five-year development of the auto industry after entering the WTO and talk about the annual news events. The following is a chat record.
Moderator : Now we continue to discuss the topics we have just discussed with Cheng. In the five years since the accession to the WTO, the Chinese auto industry has undergone earth-shaking changes. Sina Motors Ruifeng Cup news selection also accompanied China's accession to the WTO for five years. During this five-year period, there have been many major auto news events. In the auto industry, there have also been some new terms.
In major news events, for example, the reorganization of FAW and Tianjin FAW in the Sina Automobile Ruifeng Cup News Awards in 2002, and the emergence of price cuts in recent years, the introduction of the 2004 automobile recall system, and the recent export boom of some independent companies. For example, SAIC bought international resources to carry out independent innovations, as well as some of the most recent self-owned brand companies to build sports cars, as well as some OEM production. You are also witnesses and recorders of these news events. Which of these news events feel more profound to you? First of all, I would like to ask Mr. Cheng to review. What do you think the events in the past five years have left you with a deep impression?
Cheng Yuan: In the past few years, there have been many things with deep impressions. Nowadays, cars do not seem to have hot spots. There are no hot spots because there are too many hot spots. Unlike the previous price reduction of a car, it can attract people's attention. Now it seems that the price reduction has nothing to do with it. It is not very attractive, including the restructuring that you just said. The reorganization of Tianjin and FAW, of course, is the biggest restructuring of the auto industry. In the past few years, my thinking has also undergone some changes. We have long-term Against scattered differences, why can we not solve this scattered mess? Comrade Mao Zedong once said that there is a reason for everything that exists in the world. There are grounds for the existence of scattered chaos, and it is impossible for man to survive. It is always There is demand, in this case you have a few companies make it an oligopoly, so its growth space is bound to some companies can survive, so why so many years we reorganization can not be successful? Because it has room for development, it is difficult to restructure. Therefore, this restructuring of Tianjin FAW has an objective condition, that is, Tianqi entered a very difficult stage. So I was thinking about this matter, including why the Tianjin FAW restructuring didn't happen in the past few years. Everyone wants to join the WTO and this sort of thing will happen one after another. So our management has repeatedly proposed to establish three or five big competitive ones. Enterprises, this desire can not always be achieved, it is like this, because it has always had room for market development, and FAW Tianjin has become an example of this behavior alone, needless to say such as Tianqi so big, very small companies have a living space.
Therefore, on the one hand, it also contributes to the disparity. It makes China's auto market competition fierce. Some people are fierce when they mention competition. Many of our management authorities oppose competition, but the so-called scattered disorder is precisely to provide a competition. The environment, so that our automobile industry is developing so fast, can develop in this way, I think that the scattered mess has its contribution. Therefore, this incident cannot be artificially there. We must combine which groups into three major groups. After joining the WTO, several major groups have broken many rules and regulations, and some rules and regulations have been broken. Now we actually let go of the so-called The so-called car industry has three major three small, two eight production bases, and now there are actually more than 30 production bases, why the growth of such products, the brand increased so much, it is related to these entering companies, more and more companies More and more, market competition is getting more and more intense, so our market is developing so fast. It is just entering so many enterprises that I feel that the management departments have relaxed their market access during the past five years, and that we have entered more companies and now have more intense competition. This is my deepest feeling.
Moderator: Mr. Li, what are some of the changes that have taken place in China's auto industry and which events have given you a deeper impression on China's accession to the WTO?
Li Anding: Just then, Mr. Cheng’s topic, also talked about this market and competition. I think first of all, from the long-term perspective, Chinese cars must take the road of marketization, and the outcome of marketization must be competitive and competitive. The result will be a certain degree of concentration. But judging from the present, I think the competition in this market is not yet sufficient. We must continue to practice new reorganization and merger through competition. Why is it that we have a spring and autumn and warring country in which we all compete together? I think the first one is that the number of cars in China in previous years was too small. The two years were explosive growth. The growth in the past two years, the growth of automobile plants and the increase in output were all incremental, and everyone was competitive. It is an incremental market, not the output, or the fact that when the cake is constantly growing, everyone comes in and eats instead of the limit of the cake. You must eat into me. I think the Chinese auto market is now very healthy. It is completely market-oriented. We can look at the real estate market. Our real estate market is the government from the State Council to the Ministry of Construction, and how many ministries and commissions have continuously introduced new eight, nine, and nine countries. Six, but the more out there, the more things that the market wants to adjust now, the more housing prices are getting higher and higher, and some irrational performances of real estate developers cannot be prohibited. The automotive industry is the most deeply branded enterprise in the planned economy. However, after the WTO accession, there was no automobile layout, no mechanical department, and no real competent department, so its competition was even healthier.
Just now I said, seeing this kind of competition now, or the competition on the incremental, it will inevitably enter the competition of stock with the development of the market. This time will not be as good as this. There will be more and more things like FAW's merger with Tianqi, even foreign big multinational companies in China. Mergers between them will even bring domestic auto mergers and reorganizations. This will sooner or later, especially on the last At the end of the century, a hundred years ago, there were hundreds of cars in the world and thousands of car factories. But by the end of the last century, there were only ten big car groups left. It is absolutely impossible for China to cross this line. Due to the segmentation and diversification of the Chinese market, there will be a number of self-owned brands. However, they will not be able to have 100 or 200 such independent companies in the future. They will also have to merge and restructure. I think that in the end, China can have two or three brands and the world's big brands compete in the Chinese market. Two or three independent brands exist. I think it is the best thing. The greatest possibility is probably less. This is irreversible.
I think there is a big news. The most impressive of the past two years is that I feel that the launch of self-owned brands is very timely and very necessary. This is also our 20-year reform and opening up, the introduction of technology, the introduction of foreign funds, and the After the automotive industry learns, we should digest and absorb, become our own things, become our own independent brands, and we should have our own brands in such a big market. This point is very, very correct. However, our so-called self-owned brands do not mean that villages are ignited. Every household smokes. This means that each province has its own independent brand, and it reverts to the process of scattered disparities. The brand finally has a merger and reorganization, and there is also a process of concentrating on becoming bigger and stronger. Don't worry now. You don't need the government to plan and guide. I think the one that will really work one day will be the market and the law of the market itself.
Moderator : With the judgment of the two teachers, when the cake in the Chinese auto market reaches a limit, or when the Chinese auto companies have made large-scale mergers and reorganizations, when will they occur? Does Cheng have a judgment?
Cheng Yuan: The concept of this time is very difficult to come up with, because with the advancement of technology, Mr. Li said that the stock and incremental competition is actually what I said just now. I think the meaning is the same, that is, the development space. . I think the final scale of China’s auto industry, how large the market size depends on nature, is how many cars our country can hold, and how many cars our fuel can supply, this issue is also a dynamic, if according to the present Judging from some technical conditions, we now have this concept. Our oil is not enough and what is not enough. If we look at it with a dynamic concept, it is the constant progress of science and technology. In the future, we will have more land, and now we have a lot of Gobi. The deserts can all be used. Our effective land area will increase. Our living environment will change and we will be dispersed, so that our effective land area will increase. The other one, energy, is now doing a variety of experiments. The world's automobiles are moving toward new sexual energy. With the advancement of technology, human beings have overcome this difficulty that seems impossible to overcome. Our room for development will increase, because our population is more than four times the number of Americans. If we reach that point, that is, there is no room for development in the market space, and science and technology have reached the limit, then our market may be saturated. Now. Therefore, as long as the market has room for development, this competition will be difficult to avoid, and this kind of reorganization will not be effective immediately. It will become what we have always advocated as the so-called internationally competitive enterprises, no matter what you specify. These are the last few that have emerged from the competition in the market, rather than being planned in advance. The planned enterprises may no longer exist in the future. However, the enterprises that can truly stand in the forest of the world in the future may be smaller companies. We do not even notice the auto companies. This is hard to imagine. But I think in 20 years, China’s cars will not pass the unification situation because we have a huge space for development in the automobile market. If there is one day of market development, the increment will be gone. At that time, the merger and reorganization of our company There may be a large number of appearances. At that time, the three countries will be unified.
Moderator : How does Teacher Li see?
Li Anding: I think Mr. Cheng’s opinion I all agree with, but I think this process will be faster. I think it should be three or five years and the reorganization will be faster. And I think that nowadays, especially in the process of technological development, this independent brand has created a dynamic of reorganization. This restructuring does not necessarily mean which one has collapsed, and a bigger thing has been swallowed up. There is a need for unity between the vassals, such as development, and now each of our companies goes abroad to look for a design company to design a shell, copy one, change one, or make a brand, which is what we develop. Model. This approach was just the beginning, but as the large multinational corporations do more and more in China, he may use his various advantages in price to continue to make the profits of the car thin, so that this independent brand This original development method is more difficult, so they are likely to develop in a joint case. Some of the original brands proposed that whether or not all of their own brands would jointly invest in the establishment of a design company and develop a common chassis. Then our different companies made different models for sale in the market according to our different market needs. This way I think It will come soon, like big multinational companies like French PSA, Citroen and Peugeot. It is nothing more than three or four platforms. It makes different models on three or four platforms. Market sales. The public is nothing more than such a few platforms. It is used by the general public and used by Audi. Therefore, the cost of development is very high. We cannot imagine that one platform should transmit two or three hundred vehicles a year. This booth is very thin. We only have a dead end, so I don’t think that local governments should interfere in the alliance between companies. I think now companies have jointly developed the chassis. China’s No.1, No.2 China, and No.3 China’s independently developed platform are probably 10 The self-owned brand companies have come together to develop and develop. I think this is a way out. I think such a reorganization makes more sense and it is also more competitive with the Chinese auto industry in the world auto competition. I think the significance is even greater. . But the people who think of it now are, but those who are willing to do it, now everyone is better off. The Chinese people are rather inappropriate chicken tails. Even if we now have the same foreign platform that both South China Auto and SAIC have introduced, it is impossible to carry out joint reorganization. , so I said that this kind of independent brands jointly develop a platform and then make different models of things, and now it seems that there is no such a sense of urgency, but with the development of time that day will come sooner or later.
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