In a factory in the Guangrao Economic Development Zone in Dongying City, Shandong, the sound of the silicon wafer cutting machine is no longer as noisy as it used to be. Chen Wenjie, chairman of Shandong Dahai New Energy Development Co., Ltd. told reporters that after the "630" rush to install, the domestic photovoltaic industry showed a cliff-type collapse, which can be said to be the most serious in the development of the industry. Chen Wenjie's point of view is very representative. Reduced production, price cuts, and reduced orders have become the helplessness of current PV companies to survive.
According to Vishal Shah, US market analyst at Deutsche Bank, he has raised the global terminal market demand forecast for 2016/17 due to strong growth in the Chinese market in the first half of this year and growth expectations for emerging markets such as the US market in 2017 and India. At the same time, he also warned that in the second half of 2016, it is expected to lead to a 16% oversupply of global solar modules during this period. The recent weakness in the Chinese market and the squeeze out of US PV projects, as well as the weakness of the US residential market, have made market demand exhausted. Therefore, Vishal Shah expects PV unit prices to fall to US$0.40/W in most markets worldwide (current price range is 45-50 cents/W). The price of components continues to fall, and silicon wafers are bound to become the hardest hit by the industry. Shandong Dahai New Energy Development Co., Ltd. is also forced to reduce production capacity and lower prices.
In 2009, Shandong Dahai New Energy Development Co., Ltd. invested and established a factory to develop and produce silicon wafers. With good reputation and excellent product quality, the company quickly became one of the top four domestic silicon wafer suppliers and became the largest in Shandong Province. Wafer manufacturer. The company is a high-tech enterprise with leading technology, large scale, advanced equipment and high product market recognition. The company integrates manufacturing, technology research and development, product distribution and installation. It is the first batch of strategic emerging industry key projects in Shandong Province. It is listed in the first batch of enterprises approved by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to meet the requirements of the “Regulations on Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry†(No. Within a batch). Chen Wenjie is the chairman of this company with advanced manufacturing capabilities and strong R&D technology.
In the second half of 2016, due to the economic downturn, the market was weak and the non-benign competition environment was highlighted. The various factors such as the abandonment of light and electricity, subsidies and delays, and poor financing environment were intertwined. It also followed.
“Photovoltaic is facing the critical point of industry transformation,†said Chen Wenjie, which is the key period for PV subsidy weaning, enterprise technology innovation and market survival of the fittest.
After the 630 limit: struggling and braking
The 6-30 rush to install has stimulated the performance of the US, Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed companies, which has made the PV industry happy. After 6-30, the overall PV market was so turbulent that it suffered from Waterloo. According to EnergyTrend analysis, the price of silicon wafers and batteries in July and August fell rapidly, and silicon wafers fell by nearly 24% in two months. The excessive rush in the first half of the year undoubtedly became the main cause of the severe disaster. In the face of the stagnation of demand in the second half of the year, the overall buying momentum is declining, so how can companies survive the low tide of the industry?
It is understood that the current company's production cuts, employee vacations, price cuts, selective orders, etc. have become a helpless move for companies to face falling demand and reduce losses. Among them, Trina Solar, the world's largest manufacturer of polysilicon and wafers, and Trina Solar, which is the world's leading supplier of PV modules, has closed some production lines. Before June, Trina Solar sent a letter to its material suppliers. The notice stops the supply of materials. In addition, the Taiwan region affected by the mainland PV market is no exception. According to reports, solar cells, including Sunlight, Silicone, Modi, Sunshine and Yitong, will face sudden braking: production cuts and selective orders.
This is the result of the inherent development of the industry and the law of market development. Recently, in the bidding process of the Yangquan Photovoltaic Runners Project, GCL New Energy broke the low filing price of 0.61 yuan per kWh, which caused widespread discussion in the industry. Coincidentally, in less than a month, the low price record was refreshed again. On September 22, the bidding project of Baotou Photovoltaic Front Runners exploded at a low price of 0.52 yuan/kWh. To this end, "there is no minimum, only lower" has become the most popular phrase in the current photovoltaic circle. Of course, there are many considerations of the company's own strategy, but it is undeniable that due to the market law, the oversupply market will inevitably lead to the decline of product prices, and the unsatisfactory low-price bidding is also helpless. "But the industry's way out is at a low cost, low cost, and no government subsidies are needed. The industry will usher in a new starting point for development. Now is the key turning point and the hope and goal of PV people." Chen Wenjie said .
"In either case, in the market economy system, the PV market also needs to abide by market rules and rules, otherwise it will not pay for itself." Chen Wenjie revealed another fact. In the first half of this year, due to restrictions on imported polysilicon, the domestic polysilicon market The price of polysilicon has soared by 40%. "This is not normal. Everyone feels this time. So the rules are very important and should be taken seriously by rule makers." Chen Wenjie told reporters. What followed was the sudden drop in wafer prices caused by demand brakes in the second half of the year.
Selling a piece, losing a dollar, photovoltaic wafer suppliers have no choice but to take a sudden brake. Chen Wenjie said, "Reducing production has become an inevitable measure for the industry to survive. This is also the real status of many companies."
Compared to Vishal Shah, the third-party EnergyTrend forecast is even more pessimistic. At the current price point of view, most of the suppliers in the supply chain are in a negative margin. EnergyTrend expects that the proportion of oversupply from upstream polysilicon to downstream components will be 2017. Between 18 and 35%, the imbalance between supply and demand is bad.
Critical point: self-help and big test
This is the worst era and the best time.
Chen Wenjie believes that rather than issuing a dangerous signal to the photovoltaic industry, it is better to say that enterprises in the industrial chain have a warning: they are not far from subsidies, and they are not good by vicious competition. Only by relying on technological innovation, improving quality, reducing costs, and achieving affordable Internet access are the way out.
The problem of returning to the photovoltaic industry, the issue of subsidies and abandonment of electricity is the first to bear the brunt. Zhi Yuqiang, deputy director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said recently that the pressure on renewable energy subsidies has continued to increase. As of the first half of this year, the gap in renewable energy subsidies has reached 55 billion yuan (the same below), and this year is expected to exceed 60 billion yuan. . "In theory, the renewable energy price levied in 2016 can reach 80 billion yuan, but the actual amount collected is not so much. The main reason is that the stock of self-provided power plants is already large, and the scale is rapidly expanded under the local push. Now it is basically not paid. Government funds." At the same time, the problem of abandoning light has also intensified. According to Wang Zhongying, director of the National Renewable Energy Center, in the first half of 2016, the national abandoned photoelectric output reached 3.7 billion kWh.
Needless to say, the prospects for the photovoltaic industry are wonderful. However, based on the current status of the PV market in the second half of 2016, the industry must once again face a "big test."
When talking about how to take the exam, Chen Wenjie is still very optimistic. He said that the healthy development of the company is inseparable from the R&D and innovation of technology. Under the current weak PV market, “waiting for the wind†will only be eliminated. The same is true for the new energy in the sea. It relies on technological innovation to reduce production costs and promote cheaper Internet access. At present, Shandong Dahai New Energy has established cooperation with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics and other research institutions and institutions to continuously carry out research and development and innovation. It has 7 core technologies, 9 independent innovation technologies and more than 30 patent technologies. item. In response to the weak cycle of the photovoltaic market, Chen Wenjie has a well-thought-out.
In addition, actively going out has become a necessary measure. The new energy silicon wafers of the sea have been supplied to 10 battery manufacturers and other overseas users in Taiwan. At present, the supply of silicon wafers in the Taiwan market accounts for more than 50%. Chen Wenjie told reporters that compared with mainland counterparts, Taiwan's battery manufacturing customers have a more professional management philosophy. They are experienced in integrating semiconductor manufacturing technology, and they are professionally discussing and cooperating, which will help to enhance the new energy of the sea. product quality. In addition to the sea, Dahai New Energy has also established strategic cooperation with a large number of component manufacturers with strong R&D capabilities and professional standards, such as Trina Solar, to jointly contribute to material quality reduction. "Increase technological innovation and reduce costs. In the case of such a bad market situation, the technical force of concentrated advantage will upgrade the equipment and increase research and development efforts." Chen Wenjie said that the new energy of the sea is repaired.
In 2015, since the implementation of the photovoltaic leader plan, the domestic market has set off a new upsurge in photovoltaic technology, and the awareness of photovoltaic companies to establish technological advantages has been further enhanced. In this process, the application of diamond wire cutting, black silicon, PERC and other technologies has become the focus of competition among single polycrystalline enterprises. Industry insiders said that although the innovation of single crystal technology is faster, the first to introduce economical and efficient products, become the darling of the photovoltaic "leaders" project, but the technical competition between the two will be endless, which will be more conducive to the entire photovoltaic The industry will achieve parity online at an early date.
"At this stage, if you are alive, you will win, and 'winning to the last' is the real leader." Chen Wenjie's dispute over the single polycrystal, who wins and loses, laughs and does not answer, he thinks that you can't look at the problem with a static eye. The single crystal parameters are definitely better than polycrystalline, and the single crystal people are also more professional. But single crystals also have bottlenecks, such as high energy consumption, and new energy depends to a large extent on the consumption of fossil energy and the proportion of energy produced (energy recovery cycle). For example, he said: At present, the supplier of crystal enamel is only a US company. Some domestic high-purity crystals have been exhausted, and some are not up to standard, which is a potential risk for single crystal manufacturers. In Chen Wenjie's view, polycrystalline is actually not mature enough compared to single crystal manufacturing technology, and many people are still "disposing".
He believes that the shallow level of "columnar" and so on still has potential for improvement. With diamond wire cutting, black silicon, PERC process and even Wushan process, there is still much room for improvement in polycrystalline. As for who is the winner, he is more willing to give to the "market", rather than to achieve the staged results to declare the end of his life.
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