Due to the high-level thinking caused by China's energy crisis, the national strategy tends to vigorously develop new energy vehicles. In recent years, China's new energy vehicle market has experienced rapid growth. However, behind the growth of production and sales, we can still recognize that the development of the new energy automobile industry is still driven by policy, mainly relying on the policy of “crutchâ€, jumping on one leg, such advancement and development, certainly It is abnormal, unhealthy, and disability. 2016 is a transition year for the development of new energy vehicles in China. Central and local financial subsidies are gradually tightening, and the industrial policies of new energy vehicles are shifting from the GSP to promoting technological innovation. This transition process has caused new energy vehicles to experience the pain of cones, but this is a process that must be experienced. It is difficult to form porcelain without the test of fire. The new energy industry must undergo a simple policy-supported “Tielu Li†type to “policy + market†two-wheel drive “Where†type of transformation.
The necessity of this transformation can also be seen from the analysis of the status quo of China's new energy auto industry in 2016. What characteristics does China's new energy vehicle development show in 2016?
The market is prosperous, but the entire industry is still not internationally competitive.
From January to November, China's new energy automobile production reached 427,000 units, with sales of 402,000 units, an increase of 59% and 60.4% respectively over the same period of the previous year. It is estimated that the annual sales volume will reach 450,000 units, ranking first in the global new energy vehicle market. Although this figure looks very impressive, China's new energy vehicles only bloom in the wall and lack international influence. Among the domestic car companies, except for BYD's export of cities and regions, there is no concentrated sales area, this and Toyota. Compared with new energy manufacturers at Tesla level, it is not dominant.
The reason for this phenomenon is that China's new energy vehicles are still not internationally competitive. In fact, whether it is an electric car or a traditional car, we have a big gap with the old car powerhouse. In the 1960s, the United States began to develop electric vehicles. It has a strong technical accumulation, and our new energy. The development of automobiles, under the stimulus of policies and economy, has only promoted the increase of production capacity and has not provided effective help to the advancement of technology.
Infrastructure construction still has a long way to go
The imperfection of infrastructure is also one of the pain points of China's new energy vehicles . The "Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Construction Plan" proposed by the Energy Bureau pointed out that by 2020, the number of domestic charging piles will reach 4.5 million. According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, as of the end of October, there were only 107,000 public electric vehicle charging piles in China. It is far from the number of charging piles required for the popularization of new energy vehicles. Moreover, due to various reasons, the current construction of charging piles is extremely unreasonable and too scattered, and it is impossible to avoid the mileage radius of new energy vehicles. If this situation cannot be improved, then the cruising range of the vehicle must be increased, and the increase in cruising range is increased, which inevitably leads to an increase in cost.
Core components face technical bottlenecks and cannot support vehicle development
The core component of the new energy pure electric vehicle is the battery. However, although China's battery industry has achieved a lot of technical achievements, the most critical lightweight problem has not been improved. How to improve the energy density of single cells and properly integrate refrigeration measures and safety measures to form separate battery modules. In order to meet the requirements of the new energy vehicle technology roadmap planned by the relevant national ministries, it has become the most serious problem at present. In addition, other core components such as motors also have low technical problems. In fact, the technical level of most domestic motors is only equivalent to the level of the Toyota Prius three generations. At present, the Toyota Prius has launched the fifth generation.
Through the above simple analysis, we know that if new energy vehicles want to participate in international competition, they still have to go a long way. The crutches that support the policy and the "iron-turned Li" that walks on one-legged way cannot catch up. Therefore, we must turn into the "Where" of the two hot wheels, and catch up quickly, while the two "hot wheels" developed by the new energy vehicles are one policy and the other is the market.
Policy hot wheels: subsidies gradually recede, new energy fully participates in naked market competition
From the recent drafts of the "New Energy Vehicle Carbon Quota Management Measures" drafts, and the "Interim Measures for the Parallel Management of Enterprise Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points (Draft for Comment)", we can see from the recent relevant departments. From 2018 onwards, the domestic management of carbon emissions trading of automobiles will be carried out. At the same time, the negative fuel consumption of car companies will be combined with the positive points of new energy vehicles . From simple financial subsidies, they will become quotas for assessment. As a result, the enterprises are required to carry out the slope of new energy vehicle resources and provide long-term institutional guarantee for the healthy development of the new energy automobile industry. This means that new energy subsidies will not fall back in 2020, and new energy vehicles will enter the market stage in advance from 2018.
This shift in national policy requires new energy vehicles to grow on their own and meet market demand without subsidies from laws and policies. All car companies must rely on technology and strength to survive in the future development of new energy vehicles. In fact, from the current limited sales of new energy market models, new energy SUVs and cars with better shape, space and better endurance account for the largest market share. Consumers are increasingly inclined to choose products with larger product space, higher comfort and more advantageous performance. The market share of new energy vehicles that rely on “low price†to obtain the market has been difficult to maintain.
Market hot wheels: comprehensively optimize the resource allocation of the new energy vehicle market
The fierce competition in the new energy auto industry after comprehensive marketization can be imagined. One problem that is easy to be overlooked is that the competition for new energy vehicles faces the homogenization competition of new energy vehicles themselves, but also faces the traditional fuel vehicles. The challenge is that the new energy vehicle must have the same competitiveness as the traditional fuel vehicle in order to gain a foothold in the market. The primary problem to achieve this goal is how to maintain the same cost advantage as the traditional fuel vehicle, and whether it has the cost. The key to control is whether to master the core technology. Who can create a new energy vehicle of the same level and with the same cost of producing a fuel vehicle, who has the competition to face the traditional models. This topic is undoubtedly extremely difficult, which indicates that only a few companies will still gain a foothold in market competition in the future. Therefore, a large number of high-quality new energy vehicle manufacturing , research and development, sales of capital resources, technical resources, manufacturing resources and human resources are centralized and quality configuration. Therefore, after embarking on the hot wheels of the market, there may be many companies that cannot keep up with the collapse and collapse, which is also the sacrifice that must be made.
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