· Ten major events facing the commercial vehicle market in 2015

1. Guosi: The bell is officially ringing According to the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology No. 27 of 2014, the national diesel vehicle will not be sold from January 1, 2015. For the commercial vehicle market in 2015, the implementation of the national emission standards for diesel vehicles nationwide is the first concern.
Ten major events facing the commercial vehicle market in 2015. Due to the uncertainty in the timing of the national four-emissions upgrade, the preparations for the four products of the manufacturers are also uneven. It can be said that the past year was the national three and the national four. The year of the car melee. In 2015, manufacturers will compete on the same emission standard platform.
The upgrade of China's fourth emissions has eliminated some enterprises with backward product technology to a certain extent, and has also achieved some new brands with higher starting points. The commercial vehicle market structure is quietly changing. In 2015, due to the upgrade of the national four emission standards, the pattern of heavy trucks and light trucks may change, especially in the light truck industry.
In addition, the upgrade of emission standards is also an upgrade of the overall technical level of the vehicle. In 2015, the implementation of the national four began in the country, and in some first-tier cities will also implement the national five emission standards in advance, which requires the company to have a forward-looking vision, in the technical reserves of products, began to develop the national five products and produce.
Comments: In the process of full implementation of the national four emission standards, there may be problems such as the lack of urea supply, oil quality imbalance, etc., which requires the government management departments to strengthen supervision and strict enforcement. The implementation of the national four emission standards affects the changes in the market structure. Each car company should stick to its own advantages and have its own market share in differentiated competition.
2. Inventory: Who pays for the listed three cars?
The problem of high inventory of commercial vehicle dealers is getting worse. At the recent business conferences held by major commercial vehicle companies, many car management personnel pointed out that they should make certain modifications to the high inventory phenomenon in 2014 when they talked about the 2015 business policy, and even some enterprises asked for it. The dealer “buy out”, that is, handle the inventory truck by itself. This practice is reflected in the business policy, mainly to increase pressure on dealers, in order to enhance the incentives for dealers to sell cars. However, it also reflects from the side that the commercial vehicle industry also has an increase in the proportion of production and sales, and this problem will continue to exist in 2015.
According to an industry insider, due to the impact of the four-emissions upgrade in the country, there were about 40,000 national three-cars pre-sold in 2015, which means that in 2014, 40,000 vehicles were sold but not yet sold. It needs to be digested in 2015. How to deal with these three countries in the country of inventory is also a problem that manufacturers and distributors should face in 2015. High inventory is a hot spot worthy of attention in the entire industry.
Comments: For the pre-tag sales of 40,000 national three cars, whether it can be successfully digested in 2015, this is an unknown number. Maybe it will be dealt with because of the price advantage, but this will have an impact on the overall sales of the National 4th market in 2015. The National III pre-listed car is bound to eat some of the sales in 2015.
Ten major events facing the commercial vehicle market in 2015: 313 Dajinlong buses exported to Iraq 3. Exports: Cross-sea search market For Chinese commercial vehicle companies, the proportion of exports to total sales is not very large, but it can Drive the overall sales. In addition, exports are also seen as an important measure for the internationalization of the road. In the past 2014, commercial vehicle exports have come to the fore.
Different companies have different views on the export situation of commercial vehicles in 2015. For example, some people in the industry have suggested that “all the way”, the Asia-Pacific economic circle, and foreign aid projects will stimulate commercial vehicle exports. In addition, the joint venture between truck companies and foreign companies also provides opportunities for Chinese trucks to go abroad. For example, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles promotes the popularity of Dongfeng brand globally with the influence of Volvo Yacht Race. For example, China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. and Germany's German joint venture, the product technology level has been greatly improved, product quality comparable to European brand trucks, with the advantage of price, in the foreign market competition. Despite this, some automakers said that it is difficult for commercial vehicles to make major breakthroughs in exports due to the slowdown in global economic growth.
Comments: China's commercial vehicle exports are a bright spot for 2014. In 2015, the performance of Chinese companies in overseas markets should not be worse than in 2014. However, what is more worrying to people in the industry is that as China’s auto product exports continue to increase, how to establish a reasonable and orderly export order is a matter of concern.
4. Oil price: users are plunging down. In the international arena, international crude oil prices have repeatedly fallen due to the influence of big powers. Some observers said that a series of reactions caused by the collapse of crude oil prices have just begun. Then, what impact will China's commercial vehicle market have in 2015? According to industry insiders, the most direct impact is that the fuel cost of transportation vehicles will be reduced, and users may increase the purchase of fuel vehicles.
Fuel costs and labor costs account for a large proportion of operating vehicles. In the passenger car industry, affected by the promotion policy of new energy vehicles, users gradually lean toward pure electric buses in the choice of models. In the truck sector, because many freighters have unfixed freight routes, although the LNG vehicles on the market are on the rise, the main fuel for vehicles is fuel. In this way, the fall in oil prices is a positive for the truck industry chain. However, after all, the market demand for commercial vehicles is closely related to the current economic environment. Under the environment of the “new normal” of the Chinese economy, it is necessary to observe how long the low oil prices can last.
Comments: For the fact that crude oil prices are falling, many media have also explored the issue of whether logistics express will cut prices. The answer is that no logistics companies have reduced delivery fees because of falling oil prices. The most direct impact of the decline in crude oil prices in the commercial vehicle market in 2015 was the decline in the cost of use.
5, high-end: trucks embrace "high on"
In 2014, the overall growth rate of the truck market was about -9.6%, but many companies' high-end brand segments can reach 7% or even higher. In 2015, high-end trucks were highly anticipated by car companies.
The rapid development of e-commerce and logistics industry has brought unsatisfactory demand to the truck market. However, as far as the current situation of China's logistics industry is concerned, problems such as small size, scattered, poor, low degree of intensification, and low efficiency of logistics and transportation are gradually improving through the transformation of the logistics industry. Some conditional logistics companies will choose to carry out transportation in order to improve transportation efficiency, which puts higher requirements on transportation vehicles. Faced with this market opportunity, the market demand for low-end products that have won by price in the past will shrink to a certain extent, and replaced by high-quality, high-performance mid-range and high-end models.
In addition, for the 2015 truck market, the upgrade of the national four emissions also promoted the improvement of the technical level of the entire industry, especially in the light truck field, the National 4 upgrade eliminated many low-end products.
Comments: E-commerce logistics is booming, and the market demand for tractors, refrigerated trucks, and express delivery vehicles will become more and more vigorous. Although the demand for vehicles in different market segments is not the same, one thing in common is that the quality of vehicles must be excellent. This is one of the reasons why many logistics companies with better benefits and more standardized management are willing to choose high-end cars. The manufacturing level of Chinese trucks is constantly improving. Faced with the general trend that market demand has changed, we should embark on the road of “higher” as soon as possible.
Ten major events facing the commercial vehicle market in 2015 Yutong New Energy Bus 6. New energy: pure electric farewell "test field"
In 2014, the new energy vehicle market has begun to appear not to rely mainly on government subsidies, but to promote it according to the commercial operation mode. This form of promotion is mainly adopted by private passenger/rental companies. In 2015, the commercial operation of new energy vehicles will continue as more bus operators operate the pure electric bus operation and the bus companies provide complete solutions including supporting facilities construction and financial assistants. Expanded, the promotion of new energy buses has skipped the trial phase and can begin to be verified by the market.
New energy vehicles were first promoted in the field of public transportation through policy incentives and financial incentives. After nearly two years of development, new energy vehicles have made breakthroughs in product research and development, especially in the passenger car sector. Operation.
In 2015, the breakthrough of the pure electric bus market, in addition to the traditional urban bus field, passenger car rental will also become a new market growth point. It is reported that the increase in bus reform has reduced the purchase plan of many enterprises and institutions, and it is a good choice to rent commuter electric cars instead of buying cars. The bus rental company is aiming at this market. The route is fixed, the road is not far away, and the points are on time, enjoying the double subsidies of the central and local governments. It is very suitable to purchase pure electric buses for the commuting services of enterprises and institutions.
Comments: It cannot be denied that the new energy vehicle market was born out of the policy. At present, many users choose the pure electric bus because they can get state and local financial subsidies. However, with the gradual weakening of the state's subsidies for new energy vehicles, the survival of new energy vehicles still requires the market to have the final say. This depends on how much value a new energy bus can bring to users in the future.
7. LNG: Looking at the LNG market in the fog What will happen to the LNG truck and bus market in 2015? As far as the reporter's 2014 market situation is concerned, there are too many uncertain factors: Is it convenient to refuel? What is the advantage of gas prices compared to diesel prices? What is the state's policy on changing the use of car oil to gas? Both make the 2015 LNG market less clear.
Just in 2014, the sales of gas trucks in the heavy truck sector were not as good as expected at the beginning of the year. However, some business people said that China will enter the era of cheap shale gas, and the ultra-low fuel cost price will promote the market demand for LNG vehicles. Not only trucks, but also passenger cars, gas buses are mainly used for urban public transportation. In 2015, the city bus industry will continue to focus on promoting pure electric buses, such as LNG, CNG and hybrid electric buses, which will not be more in quantity. A big breakthrough.
Comments: LNG truck promotion has certain regional characteristics. For example, the promotion of LNG trucks in Shaanxi and Hebei is very good, but the promotion in the Pearl River Delta region is not very optimistic. This is closely related to the policy encouragement everywhere and whether the gas source is abundant and the gas is convenient. It is undeniable that the market potential of LNG models is considerable.
8. School bus: The policy is still in need of school bus. It is a product that was born out of the policy. It had a sales growth rate of more than 30% two years ago. However, due to the delay in the corresponding supporting policies, the school bus market was sold in 2014. The decline is obvious. However, the decline in sales does not mean that the demand for school buses is decreasing, because many places have rigid demand for school buses, which has become the biggest bargaining chip in the promotion process of 2015.
In 2014, no matter whether it was the Beijing Auto Show or the Road Transport Vehicle Show, the school bus was barely visible. This also reflected the coolness of the school bus market in 2014. At the same time, there are several school bus promotion cases that have been talked about by the industry. For example, the customized school bus launched by Fujian Kangchi Bus has adopted a market-oriented operation mode. According to industry insiders, in areas with good economic bases such as Fuzhou, the demand for school buses is rigid, and school bus manufacturers may aim to meet the needs of users in areas with relatively high operating expenses.
In 2015, the model of customized school bus may be copied. There is no policy encouragement for the promotion of school buses. It is difficult to see the rapid growth in the past. The school bus market is gradually maturing. There are just-needed and economic conditions, and relying on market-oriented operations may be A path for future school bus promotion.
Comments: The school bus is always able to think of children in remote areas, so that students in remote areas need to overcome many difficulties in using the school bus, such as roads, expenses, management and so on. It is obviously not realistic to promote it in a market-based model in such a region, and it still needs to rely on government policy support.
9. Special-purpose vehicles: The market segmentation of the heavy truck market is closely related to the economic environment. For the GDP growth rate to remain at 7% in 2015, industry insiders predict that the sales growth rate of the truck market in 2015 will not exceed 7 %, in the face of the new economic normal, companies have made adjustments in the market layout. Among them, special vehicles are a plate that is highly anticipated.
Special vehicles can be roughly classified into transportation vehicles and work vehicles. Transportation vehicles such as vans, refrigerated trucks, dangerous goods transport vehicles, etc., with the development of the logistics industry, the demand for these vehicles is increasing, and the quality of the vehicle itself is also higher. Work vehicles such as municipal engineering vehicles and road engineering vehicles will also have breakthroughs in 2015. Some business people said that although the macro economy entered the “new normal” in 2015, the infrastructure projects such as highway construction, high-speed rail construction and urban rail transit construction have not decreased, and the demand for special-purpose vehicles will continue to grow.
Comments: Many dealers said that the main reason for the completion of sales in 2014 is to rely on special vehicles to drive sales. In 2015, based on the judgment of market demand, the special car will have a good performance.
The ten major events that the commercial vehicle market will face in 2015 Hagrid cloud technology 10, the Internet of Vehicles: very popular, very popular, the Internet and the car are getting closer and closer, nowadays, the Internet of Vehicles is not new, but a A thriving and thriving potential market. With the close contact with users, commercial vehicle companies have developed their own understanding of the Internet of Vehicles technology: more attention to intelligence, timeliness and monitoring than passenger cars. In 2015, the car network will continue to expand its influence in the commercial vehicle sector and will continue to be sought after by car companies.
The promotion of the Internet of Vehicles technology in the field of trucks has also quietly formed scale. At the just-concluded Shaanxi Automobile 2015 Business Conference, the “wheel rolling” service platform released by Shaanxi Automobile has not only been positioned in the Internet of Vehicles, but also in the management of dynamic vehicles, and even includes “logistics financial services”. Module. In 2015, the scope of trucking vehicles will continue to expand. In addition to management functions, the Internet of Vehicles will be given more service connotations.
Comments: Networking technology is the future development trend. With the rejuvenation of current commercial vehicle drivers and the popularity of smart terminal devices, the Internet of Vehicles is bound to have a greater breakthrough in the field of commercial vehicles. However, some people in the industry have suggested that when promoting vehicle networking technology, OEMs, software suppliers and terminal equipment providers should strengthen communication and provide more grounded services based on the real needs of users.

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