China Drying Network News Recently, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council issued the “Notice on Implementation Plan for Tariffs in 2013â€, in which the “coal and semi-coke, whether or not powdered†(tax code) goods are in the “Export Commodity Tariff Scheduleâ€. It disappeared, which means that 40% of coke's export tariffs were cancelled this year.
Market analysts said that the elimination of export tariffs is the initial strategy for the government to encourage companies to release excess production capacity to foreign markets. The coke industry is a good news. It will increase the competitiveness of domestic coke in the international market, stimulate the enthusiasm of related companies for exports, and increase the company’s revenue and profitability. In addition, the improvement of the operating environment of the downstream steel industry will undoubtedly bring coking companies an opportunity to release production capacity. In the medium to long term, it will also boost domestic coke sales.
It is understood that before 2004, China had a 15% rebate on coke exports. However, since coking is a high-pollution, high-energy-consuming industry, and raw coking coking coal is a scarce resource, in order to strengthen environmental protection and increase resource utilization, China’s coking export tax rebates have gradually been cancelled since May 2004, and many times have been added. Export tariffs. At the same time, quotas are used to limit the export of coke. After the export tariff was raised to 40% in August 2008, China's coke export volume also fell from 15.2 million tons in 2000 to 3.3 million tons in 2011.
According to Chen Hui of the Coking Industry Association of Hebei Province, in the previous years, the upgrading of China's consumption structure and the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization led to the rapid development of the coke industry, rapid expansion of domestic coke production capacity, and an increase in production. However, as the macroeconomic growth rate continued to fall, the downstream demand for coke was seriously insufficient. At the same time, high export tariffs restricted external demand and coke exports basically stagnated. The excess pressure in the domestic coke market continues to increase.
Data show that from January to November 2012, China's coke production has completed a cumulative total of 407 million tons. According to the increase in coking capacity utilization rate after September, the annual output of coke production is expected to exceed the 440 million tons mark. According to the estimated value of 240 million tons of apparent coke consumption from January to November 2012, together with a total of 150 million tons of social inventory and exports, the supply capacity is at least 50 million tons.
It is understood that before the export tariff was raised to 40% in 2008, China was the main supplier of the international coke trade market, accounting for 40% to 50% of global coke trade volume. After the implementation of high export tariffs, China’s share in the international market dropped to 12.28%.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to November 2012, China exported 980,000 tons of coke and semi-coke, which fell by 70% year-on-year. According to the current export level, China’s coke exports will not exceed 1.1 million tons in 2012. Before 2008, the export of coke in China was maintained at over 1 million tons per month for a long period of time. In 2006, the total coke export volume reached 15 million tons.
By comparing the export of coke in the past few years, it can be seen that since August 20, 2008, after the coke export tariff was raised from 25% to 40%, the coke export volume remained low. Although the country has a quota limit of several million tons per year for export coke, the amount has not been fully used. From January to November 2012, the total export of coke was only 950,000 tons; before 2004, due to the domestic encouragement of coke exports, the average annual export of coke was over 10 million tons. Therefore, the export volume of coke has fallen sharply in recent years, mainly due to the high cost caused by the 40% tariff.
It can be predicted that after the cancellation of the 40% export tariff, China’s coke export volume will show a clear and renewed growth. According to the data before coke implementation of high tariffs in 2008, China's coke exports have always accounted for about 5% of domestic production. Some analysts pointed out that the main pressure of this tariff adjustment comes from the anti-dumping of coke, so the possibility of quota cancellation is relatively large. With reference to historical data, considering the total control of quotas and the elimination of tariffs, China’s coke exports will reach around 14 million tons. Japan, South Korea and India will give priority to the purchase of Chinese coke.
Under the support of the major favorable factor of the cancellation of coke export tariffs, the coking industry is expected to usher in a recovery and the situation of large-scale losses will be reversed.
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