The production and demand of pure benzene in China has maintained a relatively stable and synchronous growth. In 1995, China produced 1.03 million tons of pure benzene, and it reached 2.57 million tons in 2004, an average annual increase of about 11%. In the past 10 years, the net import volume of pure benzene in China remained at 3 to 50,000 tons/year. In 2003, pure benzene was also exported to 100,000 tons. It can be seen from this that China’s pure benzene is basically self-sufficient and its import and export share is very small, and the market’s operating space is relatively independent. Therefore, the RMB exchange rate adjustment currently has little impact on the pure benzene industry.
But at present, China's pure benzene production capacity has exceeded 2.5 million tons/year. With the expansion of large petrochemical enterprises or the construction of new benzene plants, a large amount of new production capacity will be put into use one after another. The excess supply will be turned to exports. The relevant experts expect that 2008 China's pure benzene production capacity may grow to nearly 4 million tons in the year and will become a net benzene exporter. Therefore, in the long run, the exchange rate adjustment will have a certain impact on the benzene market.
From the perspective of the market, the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate will have a certain impact on the market price of pure benzene. Simply put, if the market price of pure benzene denominated in U.S. dollars remains the same, the price of pure benzene denominated in renminbi will be reduced, whereas if the price of pure benzene denominated in renminbi remains the same, U.S. dollar denominated The price of benzene will increase. In the near term, after the adjustment of the exchange rate of the renminbi, the international pure benzene market experienced a certain degree of shock, but the time was short. Take the Asian market as an example: After the price of pure benzene climbed to the top of 955 to 965 US dollars (ton price, the same below) on July 7, the pure benzene market began to shift to another round of decline. However, on July 21, our country announced the adjustment of exchange rate. On July 22, the pure benzene in Asian market rose by 20 US dollars to 760-770 US dollars (FOB Korea), and then continued to rise sharply to 800-810 US dollars in two successive trading days. , and then gradually fall back, July 29 pure benzene prices back to 750 to 760 US dollars (FOB Korea). It can be seen that the Asian pure benzene market has experienced short-term fluctuations after the exchange rate adjustment, but it soon returned to its original operating trend. The U.S. pure benzene market also showed roughly the same operating characteristics.
However, the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate did not have a significant impact on the domestic pure benzene market. The recent domestic pure benzene prices continued to follow the trend of steady decline in the early period. At present, the price of pure benzene in major domestic markets was between 8,000 and 8,300 yuan, which was a drop of around 200 yuan from the previous week. .
Due to the strong demand, the shortage of pure benzene in China has increased this year, resulting in a rapid increase in imports. From January to May of this year, China's imports of pure benzene were 102,400 tons, an increase of 349% over the same period of the previous year, and the export volume was 0.44 million tons, a decrease of 25% from the same period of last year. After adjusting the exchange rate of the renminbi, due to the relatively cheap import prices, it may stimulate the further increase in imports, which will, to a certain extent, restrict the price of pure benzene in the domestic market. However, related parties believe that due to the small adjustment of the RMB exchange rate, the impact on the benzene market is not significant, so the market will continue to operate in accordance with its own laws.
There are many chemical products that use benzene as raw materials, of which the largest consumer is styrene. As domestic styrene is far from satisfying demand, China needs a lot of imports every year. In 2003, the domestic styrene production was 950,000 tons, and the current year's imports were 2.66 million tons. In 2004, the import volume further increased to 2.89 million tons. Driven by strong demand, domestic new and proposed projects are very active in recent years. At present, China's styrene production capacity is 1.15 million tons/year. It is estimated that domestic styrene production capacity will reach 1.7 million tons in 2005, and other downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam are also available. The momentum of development is also very strong, which will lead to a substantial increase in the consumption of pure benzene. As the country will maintain the normal fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, the domestic pure benzene industry will continue to maintain steady growth.
But at present, China's pure benzene production capacity has exceeded 2.5 million tons/year. With the expansion of large petrochemical enterprises or the construction of new benzene plants, a large amount of new production capacity will be put into use one after another. The excess supply will be turned to exports. The relevant experts expect that 2008 China's pure benzene production capacity may grow to nearly 4 million tons in the year and will become a net benzene exporter. Therefore, in the long run, the exchange rate adjustment will have a certain impact on the benzene market.
From the perspective of the market, the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate will have a certain impact on the market price of pure benzene. Simply put, if the market price of pure benzene denominated in U.S. dollars remains the same, the price of pure benzene denominated in renminbi will be reduced, whereas if the price of pure benzene denominated in renminbi remains the same, U.S. dollar denominated The price of benzene will increase. In the near term, after the adjustment of the exchange rate of the renminbi, the international pure benzene market experienced a certain degree of shock, but the time was short. Take the Asian market as an example: After the price of pure benzene climbed to the top of 955 to 965 US dollars (ton price, the same below) on July 7, the pure benzene market began to shift to another round of decline. However, on July 21, our country announced the adjustment of exchange rate. On July 22, the pure benzene in Asian market rose by 20 US dollars to 760-770 US dollars (FOB Korea), and then continued to rise sharply to 800-810 US dollars in two successive trading days. , and then gradually fall back, July 29 pure benzene prices back to 750 to 760 US dollars (FOB Korea). It can be seen that the Asian pure benzene market has experienced short-term fluctuations after the exchange rate adjustment, but it soon returned to its original operating trend. The U.S. pure benzene market also showed roughly the same operating characteristics.
However, the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate did not have a significant impact on the domestic pure benzene market. The recent domestic pure benzene prices continued to follow the trend of steady decline in the early period. At present, the price of pure benzene in major domestic markets was between 8,000 and 8,300 yuan, which was a drop of around 200 yuan from the previous week. .
Due to the strong demand, the shortage of pure benzene in China has increased this year, resulting in a rapid increase in imports. From January to May of this year, China's imports of pure benzene were 102,400 tons, an increase of 349% over the same period of the previous year, and the export volume was 0.44 million tons, a decrease of 25% from the same period of last year. After adjusting the exchange rate of the renminbi, due to the relatively cheap import prices, it may stimulate the further increase in imports, which will, to a certain extent, restrict the price of pure benzene in the domestic market. However, related parties believe that due to the small adjustment of the RMB exchange rate, the impact on the benzene market is not significant, so the market will continue to operate in accordance with its own laws.
There are many chemical products that use benzene as raw materials, of which the largest consumer is styrene. As domestic styrene is far from satisfying demand, China needs a lot of imports every year. In 2003, the domestic styrene production was 950,000 tons, and the current year's imports were 2.66 million tons. In 2004, the import volume further increased to 2.89 million tons. Driven by strong demand, domestic new and proposed projects are very active in recent years. At present, China's styrene production capacity is 1.15 million tons/year. It is estimated that domestic styrene production capacity will reach 1.7 million tons in 2005, and other downstream products such as phenol and caprolactam are also available. The momentum of development is also very strong, which will lead to a substantial increase in the consumption of pure benzene. As the country will maintain the normal fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, the domestic pure benzene industry will continue to maintain steady growth.
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