On May 20, 2011, data from a number of social monitoring agencies showed that the continuous rate of change in international oil prices has narrowed to less than 4%. This means that the domestic price adjustment window opened on May 9 was closed on the same day. Fortunately, domestic parties expect that domestic oil prices will be difficult to rise in the short term, and the tensions in the wholesale market of gasoline and diesel are being greatly eased, and gas station sales are increasing.
The price adjustment window is closed
The source of this change is the continued decline in international oil prices. Since May 5, the benchmark price of international crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange has continued to fluctuate around 100 US dollars/barrel and has fallen below 100 US dollars/barrel most of the time.
On May 19, 2011, the international oil price benchmark fell below 100 US dollars/barrel again. The price quoted on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures contract fell by $1.66 to close at $98.44/barrel. London Brent crude oil futures fell 76 cents to close at 111.54 US dollars / barrel. Affected by the continuous decline in international oil prices, the price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products has been closed, and people no longer need to worry that the country will raise the maximum retail price of domestic refined oil products within a short period of time.
According to China's refined oil pricing mechanism, when the international oil price changes for more than 4% of the moving weighted average price for 22 consecutive working days, domestic oil prices can be adjusted accordingly.
Monitoring by several monitoring agencies such as Siwang Energy showed that as of the close on the 19th, the rate of change in the weighted average price of mobile oil for 22 consecutive working days was already less than 4%, only 3.01%. Since the opening of the domestic price adjustment window for refined oil products on May 9, the rate of change was once as high as 7%.
Market turns light
Ting Ting, an analyst at Treasure Island, an e-commerce platform for bulk products, introduced that the closure of the price adjustment window for refined oil products has severely hit the expectations and behavior of the traders, which has eased the tight market supply. On the other hand, the continuous supply of high-loaded production from domestic Sinopec and PetroChina’s two main supply channels has increased market supply. At present, the market is in a state of lightness from the previous tight purchase and sales restrictions.
In particular, in May, temperatures in various parts of the country have risen and the summer has begun. Gasoline ushered in the peak season. However, constrained by the fluctuating international oil prices, the domestic oil market players are waiting to see more and operate in a negative manner. Gasoline prices suffer from the “difficulties of peak seasonâ€.
Loss in the wholesale price of gasoline and diesel
The domestic wholesale price of gasoline and diesel declined, of which the price of gasoline dropped sharply. As of the 19th, Treasure Island data showed that the ex-factory price of Shandong's refining gasoline fell by more than 500 yuan/ton from May 2, down by 5.56%. Even if the price of gasoline fell so badly, the downstream market did not “buy it.†Refinery sales did not improve. At the same time, as the price of refineries has fallen, local refineries have once again become a domestic price hover. Among them, taking the transaction base price of 93# gasoline in each major region as an example, the price difference between the gasoline price in Shandong and the main price of 9569 yuan/ton in the region is 651 yuan/ton.
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