Coal prices face resistance to tight supply of coking coal
According to a report released by the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday, the supply and demand of coal will be balanced in 2008 and the average price will continue to rise. Among them, the dynamic coal supply and demand situation is more likely to develop in a tighter direction, but the price increase will face resistance; coking coal supply will continue to be tight, and the price increase is expected to be within the range of 15% to 20%.
Supply and demand overall basic balance
The report believes that in 2008 the national economy will continue to maintain stable and rapid growth, investment in fixed assets, especially heavy industry investment growth is expected to fall, real estate development and investment will continue to grow rapidly.
From the factors affecting coal demand, on the one hand, regional development strategies such as the development of the western region, the revitalization of the northeast, the rise of central China, and the development of the Bohai Economic Zone continue to advance. The construction of new rural areas is gradually culminating in the development of coal demand. On the other hand, the production growth of most coal-fired products has slowed down, the technological structure of the major coal-mining industries has been optimized, and the effect of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies has been strengthened, which will continue to drive down the increase in coal demand. Taken together, coal demand in 2008 will continue to remain generally strong and the demand for coal will increase moderately, but the increase will fall back to the 6% to 8% range.
Judging from the factors affecting coal supply, it is expected that more than 250 million tons/year coal production capacity will be put into operation in 2008, minus the production capacity of the backward small coal mines that may be eliminated, and the growth of coal production capacity will remain at the current level. The increase in coking coal production capacity is relatively small. At the same time, the growth rate of coal transportation capacity of railways has dropped, and bottlenecks in transport will be slightly increased in some regions.
In addition, due to the large appreciation of the renminbi, the increase in coal export costs, the decline in the number of long-term contracts signed, and the continued effects of state-controlled export policies, the space for coal exports to continue to rise has been very limited. Time will maintain the net import status of coal.
On the whole, judging that the basic pattern of transportation and production in 2008 will not change, the overall balance of coal supply and demand will not change; due to the small increase in railway capacity and effective supply, the development of supply and demand for thermal coal may be in a tighter direction. More sexual. As the increase in coking coal production capacity and increase in transportation capacity are at a low level, the supply of coking coal will remain tight.
Coal and coking coal prices are mixed
The report predicts that the average price of coal will continue to rise in 2008. Among them, the price of thermal coal will rise slightly, but the increase will be more difficult; the price of coking coal will increase significantly.
According to the report, the market power for the increase in the price of thermal coal is very strong. From the perspective of the price relation between domestic and foreign coal prices and the comparison with other energy varieties, there is also a certain amount of space. However, the adjustment of thermal coal prices faces a series of obstacles and difficulties. Coal companies must work hard to push prices on the premise of safeguarding the overall development of the national economy.
The upward pressure on the price of power coal includes: First, the current price index has risen, and inflationary pressures have increased. The government does not support price adjustments. Second, the distribution of profits within the power industry's internal plant network is not uniform, and the profit growth rate of thermal power production enterprises is declining. Third, the coal-fired linkage policy in 2007 may not be carried out as scheduled during the year. On September 9th this year, the National Development and Reform Commission adjusted the feed-in tariff of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Power Grid by power plants in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia. Although this is not a coal-electricity linkage in the full sense, this is not in line with the “regional coal-electricity linkage†strongly demanded by the two provinces. Unrelated, the meaning of "cost promotion" is strong.
From the perspective of coking coal, the market mechanism whose price is determined by supply and demand, rising costs and industrial relations is relatively perfect. Coking coal is a scarce resource. Since the second half of 2006, the supply of coking coal has continued to be tight. In 2008, it will continue to be in a tight state. Supply and demand will drive the price of coking coal. The cost of coking coal in Shanxi Province, which is the main producer of coking coal, will increase significantly, and rising costs will also lead to higher prices.
The report stated that the international market's coking coal contract price in fiscal year 2008 is expected to increase by more than 30%, which will create a suitable market environment for the domestic market to increase coking coal prices. Based on the above factors, it will be judged that the price of coking coal will rise sharply, and the expected increase is within the range of 15% to 20%.
According to a report released by the National Development and Reform Commission yesterday, the supply and demand of coal will be balanced in 2008 and the average price will continue to rise. Among them, the dynamic coal supply and demand situation is more likely to develop in a tighter direction, but the price increase will face resistance; coking coal supply will continue to be tight, and the price increase is expected to be within the range of 15% to 20%.
Supply and demand overall basic balance
The report believes that in 2008 the national economy will continue to maintain stable and rapid growth, investment in fixed assets, especially heavy industry investment growth is expected to fall, real estate development and investment will continue to grow rapidly.
From the factors affecting coal demand, on the one hand, regional development strategies such as the development of the western region, the revitalization of the northeast, the rise of central China, and the development of the Bohai Economic Zone continue to advance. The construction of new rural areas is gradually culminating in the development of coal demand. On the other hand, the production growth of most coal-fired products has slowed down, the technological structure of the major coal-mining industries has been optimized, and the effect of energy-saving and emission-reduction policies has been strengthened, which will continue to drive down the increase in coal demand. Taken together, coal demand in 2008 will continue to remain generally strong and the demand for coal will increase moderately, but the increase will fall back to the 6% to 8% range.
Judging from the factors affecting coal supply, it is expected that more than 250 million tons/year coal production capacity will be put into operation in 2008, minus the production capacity of the backward small coal mines that may be eliminated, and the growth of coal production capacity will remain at the current level. The increase in coking coal production capacity is relatively small. At the same time, the growth rate of coal transportation capacity of railways has dropped, and bottlenecks in transport will be slightly increased in some regions.
In addition, due to the large appreciation of the renminbi, the increase in coal export costs, the decline in the number of long-term contracts signed, and the continued effects of state-controlled export policies, the space for coal exports to continue to rise has been very limited. Time will maintain the net import status of coal.
On the whole, judging that the basic pattern of transportation and production in 2008 will not change, the overall balance of coal supply and demand will not change; due to the small increase in railway capacity and effective supply, the development of supply and demand for thermal coal may be in a tighter direction. More sexual. As the increase in coking coal production capacity and increase in transportation capacity are at a low level, the supply of coking coal will remain tight.
Coal and coking coal prices are mixed
The report predicts that the average price of coal will continue to rise in 2008. Among them, the price of thermal coal will rise slightly, but the increase will be more difficult; the price of coking coal will increase significantly.
According to the report, the market power for the increase in the price of thermal coal is very strong. From the perspective of the price relation between domestic and foreign coal prices and the comparison with other energy varieties, there is also a certain amount of space. However, the adjustment of thermal coal prices faces a series of obstacles and difficulties. Coal companies must work hard to push prices on the premise of safeguarding the overall development of the national economy.
The upward pressure on the price of power coal includes: First, the current price index has risen, and inflationary pressures have increased. The government does not support price adjustments. Second, the distribution of profits within the power industry's internal plant network is not uniform, and the profit growth rate of thermal power production enterprises is declining. Third, the coal-fired linkage policy in 2007 may not be carried out as scheduled during the year. On September 9th this year, the National Development and Reform Commission adjusted the feed-in tariff of the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Power Grid by power plants in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia. Although this is not a coal-electricity linkage in the full sense, this is not in line with the “regional coal-electricity linkage†strongly demanded by the two provinces. Unrelated, the meaning of "cost promotion" is strong.
From the perspective of coking coal, the market mechanism whose price is determined by supply and demand, rising costs and industrial relations is relatively perfect. Coking coal is a scarce resource. Since the second half of 2006, the supply of coking coal has continued to be tight. In 2008, it will continue to be in a tight state. Supply and demand will drive the price of coking coal. The cost of coking coal in Shanxi Province, which is the main producer of coking coal, will increase significantly, and rising costs will also lead to higher prices.
The report stated that the international market's coking coal contract price in fiscal year 2008 is expected to increase by more than 30%, which will create a suitable market environment for the domestic market to increase coking coal prices. Based on the above factors, it will be judged that the price of coking coal will rise sharply, and the expected increase is within the range of 15% to 20%.
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