Recently, the author saw the semi-annual transcripts of the major listed companies of LED. After careful study, it was found that more than half of the company's operating conditions are worrying. Most companies are unclear about the second half of the year. The listed companies are the domestic market of LED companies. The barometer, these VCs are generally optimistic about the industry and enterprises, what problems have caused such a performance?
Based on the semi-annual financial reports of listed companies in the first half of the year, the author summarizes these keywords in terms of their business status, cause analysis and future expectations:
1. Business status: Declining performance and falling profits 2. Reason analysis: Financial crisis, price competition, open source and low expenditures 3. Future expectations: We are still unclear to see such performance. The domestic lighting industry has a capacity of more than 200 billion yuan, of which the LED part is expected to reach 30 billion yuan in 2012. By 2014, the industry expects to reach 900 billion. This LED field with geometric growth rate is gaining momentum. State, the industrial cake is big enough, why the domestic LED market now seems to be hot, so can't you eat well?
The author believes that there is some chaos in the LED lighting market. This chaos may exist for a period of time. The demand has not yet been transformed. The enterprise has sneaked into it. 1) Consumers have insufficient understanding, and the demand transformation needs time. At the beginning of the new year in 2012, the Chinese LED industry welcomes Since the policy spring breeze, from the State Council to the local government have issued policies to promote LED, the local government's call and the national promotion of the green photo project have put LED lighting products on the 2012 promotion plan, but these promotions are only staying in the government At the level, the promotion of government policies can only be seen in some municipal projects, that is to say, LED lighting products can be used for the construction and renovation of municipal and roads and institutions, and for civil and civil projects. It is also necessary for the state and enterprises to gradually infiltrate through brand promotion and promotion. It is necessary to know the energy-saving education from incandescent lamps to energy-saving lamps. It spans thousands of kilometers in the east-south north-south plane, and deepens the first- and second-tier developed cities to four or five towns and backward rural areas. And the company spent more than 10 years to publicize education, although with the improvement of the quality of the people,
Therefore, from this perspective, current demand transformation mainly focuses on the application of municipal projects such as government, while the demand for civil projects and household use has not yet been transformed.
2) The company’s sword has gone astray. So far, we have learned that we have been blindly entering the domestic market and entering the domestic civilian market. The civilian market is mostly dominated by some big brands and in the current situation of insufficient consumer awareness. The second and third line of traditional lighting and commercial lighting brand control, this obvious demand asymmetry is destined to these brands can not quickly enter the market and get good performance.
In addition, as far as the domestic civil or commercial lighting market is concerned, LED brand new brands without domestic sales experience and channels are completely unclear about the demand characteristics of domestic channel distributors, and it is impossible to seize the system with blind and insufficient system. The lighting industry has experienced more than a decade of industry accumulation. Whether it is from the overall development of the industry, or the channel dealers' perceptions, there have been profound changes. The current dealers are also cautious about the choice of enterprises, if we do not pay attention to The demand at these channel levels, and blindly cut into, will only bring a negative reputation to the brand for a hundred and ten.
Secondly, among the market capacity of 30 billion yuan, nearly 10,000 LED companies have seized one after another. On average, only one company has a rice bowl of 3 million. Some industry predators have already seized a large share of the municipal engineering project, and the remaining companies have cracked. In order to survive, some have almost no food. Therefore, it is not surprising that a large number of LED factories in the ancient town have recently leased out factories and some small factories have closed down.
In the long run, the LED market is still promising in the future, but companies must be psychologically prepared, able to withstand loneliness, find opportunities, locate themselves, and prepare for long-term continuous fighting, in order to laugh at the end!
Second, the product line is not yet mature, and all enterprises are competing to enter. 1) The technology is maturing, but the product line is not enough. The system LED research and development has been deepened since the beginning of several senior LED companies in China since a few years ago, and the technology is becoming more mature. The improvement of chip technology and the repeated application of domestic products and practical applications have formed some relatively mature products, and also solved practical problems such as heat generation and heat dissipation of LED products, but in terms of the health of the actual product line, it is more traditional. The products are still far apart.
Whether it is downlights, ceiling lights or home lighting products, the style and application of the products can not catch up with the quality of traditional commercial lighting or home lighting, which affects the choice of purchase rate in consumer choice.
Therefore, only the technology is mature, but the actual combination of technology and products does not form a product that meets the customer's needs (like a patented technology, but the combination of patented technology and application, it is difficult to develop a product that consumers like, not close to the market. , can not be converted into economic value). Or if there are some products but there is no complete product line to implement the serialized application sales level, instead of the traditional traditional products, it will take some time to replace the traditional lamps.
2) There is no standard in the industry, and all enterprises blindly enter the current mature LED technology. There is no leader in the LED domestic market. The country lacks reference when drafting industry standards. The whole industry is in chaos. We often see some LED manufacturers in order to Cut into the market, in order to low prices, the use of low lumens light source, poor quality drivers, etc. can be cut into the market early, and the warranty is a responsible one year warranty, not very responsible for three months warranty, more affordable The responsibility is simply not to be guaranteed. These are very different from the original intention of the new green lighting epoch revolution. The theoretical life of LED should be 50,000 hours. Is it not possible to make a discount in actual application? How can this kind of promotion service replace the energy-saving lamp products that will be guaranteed for one year?
When there is no standard in the industry, it is the most confusing time. Of course, some companies that have not been infected with sludge can take advantage of the best breakthrough opportunities to realize their chance to become a benchmark enterprise.
Third, the industry's sales experience is scarce, blindly cut into the domestic market Since the country began to advocate LED lighting in recent years, the domestic derivative of a lot of lighting companies, these lighting companies can be divided into several types.
1) Although the future of the strength-oriented enterprises is bright, there are some confusions on the way. In recent years, with the development of the lighting industry, the domestic market has grown stronger. Midea, Konka, Skyworth, TCL, Tsinghua Tongfang, Panasonic, Samsung, Furi, Dehao Runda also By turning the turning point of the technological revolution in the industry into the lighting market, these enterprises have an obvious feature: the comprehensive strength of the enterprise and diversified operations. These companies are all tens of billions or even hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue, and not only produce home appliances, accessories, and even some cross-industry, cross-domain operations, is experienced and strong.
For these companies, it is an advantage, but it also reflects the disadvantages of these enterprises. Most of these enterprises are in the fields of high product maturity, relatively high brand concentration, single product application function and low complexity. It has its own unique competitiveness, and the lighting industry is characterized by low product maturity, low brand concentration, high complexity of production and application, etc., which form a reverse contrast with these enterprises. Therefore, the operators and managers of these enterprises are When operating the lighting industry, the operating mode of the home appliance industry has been faltering. At the same time, the technology research and development capabilities, product realization capabilities, and supply chain integration capabilities that these half-way companies lack in LED lighting have constrained the overall lighting business development of these enterprises. Based on this, these home appliance giants have chosen to give up after a small trial, and they will not die for a long time. At present, they have not seen any big moves.
Therefore, different industries have different industry characteristics, and whether the right medicine is the primary problem should be considered.
2) The professional enterprise has a new industry in the future. On the way, there are many companies that have been springing up in the spring, and there are many companies that are led by the upstream LED packaging business. In the past two years, they have attracted the wind and money, and the state has supported it, thus becoming a fund. Professional companies that are not lacking in technology, such as Yajiang Optoelectronics, Bangqiao Technology, Hongli Optoelectronics, Chau Ming, Lehman, Jingri Lighting, Zhonglong, Juguang Technology, Cinda Optoelectronics, Shenzhen Jufei, Shenzhen Wanrun, Beijing Liad, Hangzhou Yuanfang, etc., these companies are all in the LED industry chain, one or a few links are more prominent, these become the main business part of the company. These companies have money and technology, and are the leading force in the domestic LED market. But these companies find that it is not so simple when they actually operate the domestic market. What kind of product planning, what kind of price positioning, what kind of market strategy, what kind of The practical problems such as the way of cutting in and what kind of promotion mode are in front of us.
These companies, which are used to being the upstream industry chain suppliers, have encountered great challenges in the acceptance of the marketing FromEMKT.com.cn model, and the domestic lighting market has matured. It has already passed a dollar today and will be exchanged for tomorrow. The good times of the gratifying return of the dollar bills are far from the operation of the upstream supplier mode simple trading mode. What you can see is that the monthly marketing promotion costs are flying like snow flakes, and the market returns that are shaken indefinitely are anxious. This can't help but let the people sitting in the boss position hesitate, the domestic market still do not want to do? Therefore, we can see that when many new LEDs enter the domestic market, they are all over the place, hesitant, and they are so overwhelmed that they can’t see and see if they have their own light in the distance.
This is the case in the domestic market. Today's channel competition has reached a stalemate, and a good channel strategy is needed: the continuous waiting for product service policy is the necessary path to maintain domestic channels, and the winner is the one that continues to wait until the end. This must be firmly believed. At the moment, Changfang, Qiyi and other brands are the benchmark companies and brands in the new LED industry.
3) Old and large-scale senior brands, well-known shots, well-known lighting giants in the industry, international brands such as Philips, Osram, etc., domestic brands include Op, NVC and so on. The development trend of the LED industry is accelerating, and the market is getting hotter. We can't help but wonder why these brands are still emerging in LEDs. It seems that something is not appropriate.
The author analyzes the following points:
a) For a period of time, traditional products dominated (external causes)
China's vast land and resources, more than 5,000 kilometers from east to west and north and south, deep in the 1234 market, when the country calls for LED popularization, how can the complicated domestic channel structure penetrate so quickly? Many domestic market and channel distributors are still immersed in the sales boom of traditional fluorescent products, especially the products of these big-name manufacturers occupy more than 90 display proportions in channel stores, high maturity, balanced inventory and supply chain, and price advantage. Obviously, consumers can easily earn profits by not having to pay much attention. These aspects have affected the progress of LEDs to replace fluorescent products to a certain extent. Therefore, regardless of the channel level or the consumer level, the change of cognition and improvement is still It takes time.
b) Big-name manufacturers do not expect to speed up LED replacement of traditional products (internal factors)
Everyone knows that when a technological revolution occurs in an industry, it is also the best time for a new brand to replace an old brand. If it is an electronic product such as IT or mobile phones, I am afraid that the big brands are already impatient, mobile phones, IT and other electronics. Class brands belong to industries with high attention and high sensitivity. They spread very fast in the industry and lead to elimination after being left behind. However, the lighting industry is different. The lighting industry is an industry with low attention, low brand concentration and high product complexity. It has not experienced the real reshuffle of the industry, and it is difficult to experience a clean shuffle.
Throughout the past ten years, the brands in the industry have been in the first echelon and leader position, while other brands are mostly in the trailing position. So we see this
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